Did the 2026 Knicks Have a Historic Playoff Run? — Analysis Results
Auto-generated by knicks_2026_analysis.py. Do not edit by hand — re-run the script.
─── §1 THE RAW CLAIM ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
2025-26 Knicks playoff record: 16-3 (win rate 0.842)
Average margin of victory: +14.9 pts/game
Among 43 champion seasons (1983–84 through 2025–26):
Win-rate percentile: 88.4th (0.842 vs. mean 0.752, best 0.941)
Margin percentile: 100.0th (+14.9 vs. mean +7.0, best +14.9)
95% CI on margin (19 games, t-interval): [+7.4, +22.4]
Lower CI bound +7.4 would rank at 63th pct among champions
Best win rate: 16–17 0.941
Worst win rate: 07–08 0.615
─── §2 WAS THE EAST WEAK IN 2025-26? ──────────────────────────────────
Average regular-season SRS by conference:
East: -0.20 | West: +0.20
SRS gap (West − East): +0.39 pts/game
East inter-conference win rate: 0.487
2025-26 Knicks playoff opponents (SRS from regular season):
San Antonio Spurs SRS +8.28
Cleveland Cavaliers SRS +3.77
Atlanta Hawks SRS +2.38
Philadelphia 76ers SRS -0.27
Unique-opponent avg SRS: +3.54
Games-weighted avg SRS: +3.67 (primary metric)
─── §3 HOW WEAK IS THE EAST HISTORICALLY? ─────────────────────────────
2025-26 SRS gap (West − East): +0.39 pts/game
Percentile among all 43 seasons (100th = most West-dominant): 37.2th
Gap distribution (43 seasons):
Mean: +0.78 pts/game
Std: 1.81 pts/game
95% CI on mean: [+0.22, +1.34]
Z-score of 2025-26 gap: -0.21 (below historical mean)
2025-26 gap is well within normal variation (|z| < 1).
Top 3 most West-dominant seasons:
13–14: +4.08
03–04: +3.73
00–01: +3.11
Top 3 most East-dominant seasons:
97–98: -2.98
96–97: -2.44
87–88: -2.42
2025-26 East inter-conference win rate: 0.487
Percentile (100th = worst for East): 37.2th
─── §4 WHO DID THE KNICKS BEAT? ───────────────────────────────────────
Games-weighted avg opponent SRS: +3.67 pts/game
Percentile among champions: 48.8th (mean +3.68, easiest +0.62, hardest +5.77)
Champions who faced weakest opponents (avg opp SRS):
22–23: +0.62
86–87: +1.32
23–24: +1.99
19–20: +2.06
98–99: +2.33
─── §5 OPPONENT-ADJUSTED DOMINANCE ────────────────────────────────────
Adjusted margin = raw margin − games-weighted opponent SRS
Raw margin: +14.89
Games-wtd opp SRS: +3.67
Adj margin: +11.23
Among 43 champion seasons:
Adj-margin percentile: 100.0th (mean +3.37, best +11.23)
Top 5 adjusted-margin champions:
25–26: raw +14.89 opp +3.67 adj +11.23 ← 2025-26 Knicks
16–17: raw +13.65 opp +3.41 adj +10.23
86–87: raw +10.83 opp +1.32 adj +9.52
90–91: raw +11.71 opp +2.51 adj +9.20
85–86: raw +10.56 opp +2.83 adj +7.72
── Playoff overperformance (vs. regular-season SRS prediction) ──
Knicks regular-season SRS: +6.05
Expected margin/game: +2.38 (= SRS +6.05 − opp +3.67)
Actual margin/game: +14.89
Overperformance: +12.52 pts/game
Among 43 champion seasons:
Overperf percentile: 97.7th (mean +3.77, best +14.49)
Top 5 overperformance champions:
00–01: raw +12.75 reg-SRS +3.74 overperf +14.49
25–26: raw +14.89 reg-SRS +6.05 overperf +12.52 ← 2025-26 Knicks
15–16: raw +8.62 reg-SRS +5.45 overperf +8.58
17–18: raw +10.00 reg-SRS +5.75 overperf +8.20
84–85: raw +10.16 reg-SRS +6.48 overperf +6.62
─── §6 ROUND-BY-ROUND: RAW vs. OPPONENT-ADJUSTED ──────────────────────
reg-adj = raw margin − opponent regular-season SRS
po-adj = raw margin − opponent playoff SRS (excl. Knicks series)
(po-adj is more positive when opponents played below their reg-season level
against other teams; NaN = opponent had no independent playoff games)
Round Opponent N Opp Reg SRS Opp PO SRS Raw Reg-Adj PO-Adj
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
R1 Atlanta Hawks 6 +2.38 +nan +17.5 +15.1 +nan
R2 Philadelphia 76ers 4 -0.27 -1.43 +22.2 +22.5 +23.7
CF Cleveland Cavaliers 4 +3.77 +2.32 +19.2 +15.5 +16.9
Finals San Antonio Spurs 5 +8.28 +14.48 +2.4 -5.9 -12.1
── Opponent reg-season SRS vs. playoff SRS ──
Opponent playoff SRS is computed from games EXCLUDING the Knicks series,
so it is an independent measure of each team's playoff form.
NaN = team had no playoff games outside the Knicks series (Hawks).
Opponent Reg SRS PO SRS Gap (PO−Reg) Note
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Atlanta Hawks +2.38 +nan n/a (no independent playoff games — NaN)
Philadelphia 76ers -0.27 -1.43 -1.16 (games before reaching Knicks)
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.77 +2.32 -1.45 (games before reaching Knicks)
San Antonio Spurs +8.28 +14.48 +6.20 (full West bracket — most independent)
── Pre-Finals vs. Finals summary ──
Raw Reg-Adj PO-Adj
Pre-Finals avg (R1–CF) +19.7 +17.7 +20.3
Finals +2.4 -5.9 -12.1
Gap (pre − Finals) +17.3 +23.6 +32.4
── Full-run opponent-playoff-SRS-adjusted margin ──
Knicks games-wtd avg opponent playoff SRS: +5.84
Adj margin (raw − opp playoff SRS): +9.05
Percentile among 43 champions: 100.0th
Top 5 (opponent-playoff-SRS-adjusted):
25–26: raw +14.89 opp-po-SRS +5.84 adj +9.05 ← 2025-26 Knicks
86–87: raw +10.83 opp-po-SRS +1.85 adj +8.99
00–01: raw +12.75 opp-po-SRS +6.05 adj +6.70
90–91: raw +11.71 opp-po-SRS +5.10 adj +6.61
13–14: raw +9.30 opp-po-SRS +3.30 adj +6.00
── 2025-26 playoff field — most improved (reg→playoff SRS) ──
Full playoff SRS (all of a team's playoff games, unlike the opponent
table above which excludes the Knicks series) minus regular-season SRS,
computed identically for every 2025-26 playoff team.
Team Reg SRS PO SRS Elev PO G
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
New York Knicks +6.05 +17.53 +11.48 19 ← Knicks
San Antonio Spurs +8.28 +15.13 +6.85 23
Portland Trail Blazers -0.28 +2.73 +3.01 5
Oklahoma City Thunder +11.04 +11.42 +0.38 15
Atlanta Hawks +2.38 +0.03 -2.35 6
Minnesota Timberwolves +3.07 -1.04 -4.11 12
Philadelphia 76ers -0.27 -4.72 -4.45 11
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.77 -1.72 -5.50 18
Toronto Raptors +2.75 -3.43 -6.19 7
Los Angeles Lakers +1.68 -4.58 -6.26 10
Phoenix Suns +1.75 -5.83 -7.58 4
Orlando Magic +0.81 -7.86 -8.67 7
Boston Celtics +7.37 -1.86 -9.23 7
Denver Nuggets +4.97 -5.54 -10.51 6
Detroit Pistons +7.53 -3.15 -10.68 14
Houston Rockets +4.87 -7.08 -11.95 6
─── §7 OTHER DEFLATORS ────────────────────────────────────────────────
── Clutch / close games ──
Fraction of Knicks 2026 playoff games decided by ≤5 pts: 0.316
Percentile (100th = most clutch): 83.7th (mean 0.256)
── Home/away splits ──
Home games: 9 win rate: 0.778
Away games: 10 win rate: 0.900
Home win-rate percentile (vs champions): 23.3th
Away win-rate percentile (vs champions): 97.7th
── Record summary ──
Total: 16W 3L across 19 games
── Round-by-round breakdown ──
vs. Atlanta Hawks 4-2 avg margin +17.5
vs. Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 avg margin +22.2
vs. Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 avg margin +19.2
vs. San Antonio Spurs 4-1 avg margin +2.4
── East (pre-Finals) combined vs. Finals shape ──
East opponents (R1–CF), games-weighted: 12-2, avg margin +19.4 pts/game over 14 games
Finals games decided by ≤4 pts: 4 of 5
─── §8 PLAYOFF SRS AND ELEVATION ──────────────────────────────────────
2025-26 Knicks:
Regular-season SRS: +6.05
Playoff SRS: +17.53
Elevation: +11.48 (playoff − regular-season SRS)
Among 43 champion seasons:
Elevation percentile: 97.7th (mean +4.43, best +12.58, worst -3.72)
Top 5 playoff elevators (most improved reg→playoff):
00–01: reg +3.74 → playoff +16.33 elev +12.58
25–26: reg +6.05 → playoff +17.53 elev +11.48 ← 2025-26 Knicks
17–18: reg +5.75 → playoff +16.55 elev +10.79
22–23: reg +3.01 → playoff +12.94 elev +9.94
16–17: reg +11.35 → playoff +20.18 elev +8.83
Bottom 5 (most declined reg→playoff):
99–00: reg +8.41 → playoff +4.69 elev -3.72
24–25: reg +12.70 → playoff +10.78 elev -1.92
96–97: reg +10.74 → playoff +9.28 elev -1.46
23–24: reg +10.75 → playoff +9.74 elev -1.00
92–93: reg +6.19 → playoff +5.27 elev -0.92
─── §8b WHAT'S BEHIND THE JUMP: ROSTER CONTINUITY ──────────────────────
Core = the high-minute playoff rotation (>= 20 mpg across the playoff
run). For each game we count how many of the core actually played, then
split the Knicks' point margin by how many were available.
Core (5): Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson
Full core together: 56% of the regular season (46 of 82), 89% of the playoffs
Reg-season margin, all 5 core: +8.09 (46 games)
Reg-season margin, missing >=1 core: +4.08 (36 games)
Reg-season margin, full season: +6.33
Playoff margin: +14.89
Margin by number of core available (regular season):
0/5 available: 1 games, margin -14.00
3/5 available: 7 games, margin -8.57
4/5 available: 28 games, margin +7.89
5/5 available: 46 games, margin +8.09
The Knicks were clearly better with the core intact, and were intact
far more often in the playoffs. But even the full-core regular-season
margin falls well short of the playoff margin, so health is part of the
jump, not the whole of it.
─── §9 ERA / SCORING-LEVEL ADJUSTMENT ─────────────────────────────────
League scoring environment:
2025-26 avg pts/team/game: 115.6
Historical mean (1984–2026): 103.5
Scale factor: 0.896
Knicks 2025-26:
Raw avg margin: +14.89 pts/game
Scoring-adjusted margin: +13.34 pts/game
Opp-adj margin (raw): +11.23 pts/game
Opp+scoring-adjusted margin: +10.05 pts/game
Among 43 champion seasons:
Scoring-adj raw-margin percentile: 95.3th (mean +7.02, best +13.92)
Opp+scoring-adj margin percentile: 100.0th (mean +3.29, best +10.05)
Top 5 scoring-adjusted raw-margin champions:
00–01: raw +12.75 era-scoring 94.8 scoring-adj +13.92
16–17: raw +13.65 era-scoring 105.6 scoring-adj +13.38
25–26: raw +14.89 era-scoring 115.6 scoring-adj +13.34 ← 2025-26 Knicks
90–91: raw +11.71 era-scoring 106.3 scoring-adj +11.40
95–96: raw +10.56 era-scoring 99.5 scoring-adj +10.98
Top 5 opp+scoring-adjusted margin champions:
25–26: opp-adj +11.23 era-scoring 115.6 opp+scoring-adj +10.05 ← 2025-26 Knicks
16–17: opp-adj +10.23 era-scoring 105.6 opp+scoring-adj +10.04
86–87: opp-adj +9.52 era-scoring 109.9 opp+scoring-adj +8.96
90–91: opp-adj +9.20 era-scoring 106.3 opp+scoring-adj +8.96
00–01: opp-adj +7.26 era-scoring 94.8 opp+scoring-adj +7.93
Lowest-scoring eras (margins get scaled UP):
98–99: 91.6 pts/team/game
03–04: 93.4 pts/team/game
00–01: 94.8 pts/team/game
Highest-scoring eras (margins get scaled DOWN):
25–26: 115.6 pts/team/game
22–23: 114.7 pts/team/game
23–24: 114.2 pts/team/game
─── §10 VERDICT ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
The 2025-26 Knicks went 16-3 in the playoffs.
KEY METRICS vs. all 43 champions (1983–84 through 2025–26):
Win rate 0.842: 88th percentile
Avg margin +14.9 pts/game: 100th percentile
Games-wtd opp SRS +3.67: 49th percentile (lower = easier schedule)
Adj margin +11.2 pts/game: 100th percentile
Scoring-adj raw margin +13.3 pts/game: 95th percentile
Opp+scoring-adj margin +10.1 pts/game: 100th percentile
Overperformance +12.5 pts/game: 98th percentile
East/West SRS gap +0.39: 37th percentile (West dominance)
SUMMARY:
The 2025-26 Knicks had a elite playoff run by win rate, which holds up well after adjusting for schedule.
─── §11 OPPONENT PLAYER AVAILABILITY ───────────────────────────────────
Round Opponent Core Avail/game Health
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
R1 Atlanta Hawks 7 7.0/7 100%
R2 Philadelphia 76ers 6 5.8/6 96%
CF Cleveland Cavaliers 8 7.8/8 97%
Finals San Antonio Spurs 7 7.0/7 100%
Definition: 'core' = player averaging ≥15 min/game across all their 2025-26 playoff appearances.
Health = fraction of core players who appeared per game in the Knicks series.
Average opponent health: 98%
Most depleted opponent: Philadelphia 76ers (96%)
Healthiest opponent: Atlanta Hawks (100%)
Finals note: The Spurs were fully healthy — the Finals result stands without asterisk.
─── §12 BETTING-MARKET EXPECTATIONS (ATS) ──────────────────────────────
Games with Vegas lines: 19 of 19
ATS record: 14-5
Avg Knicks spread: -2.0 pts (negative = Knicks favored)
Avg ATS margin: +12.9 pts (how much they beat the spread)
── Statistical significance of ATS record ──
Null hypothesis: each game covers at 50% (efficient market)
Observed: 14/19 covers (73.7%)
Z-score: +2.06
One-tailed p-value (P(X≥14) under null): 0.0318
Interpretation: Significant (p < 0.05).
── Adjusted for series correlation ──
The 19 games are 4 series; if covers within a series moved
together (same matchup, correlated spread error), the iid test
above would overstate the evidence. Modeling that with the
design effect gives:
Within-series correlation (ICC): 0.00
Design effect: 1.00
Effective sample size: 19.0 (of 19 games, 4 series)
Adjusted z-score: +2.06
Adjusted one-tailed p-value: 0.0195
95% Wilson CI, true cover rate: 51% – 88% (on the effective sample)
Here the within-series correlation is essentially zero, so the
design effect is about 1 and the adjusted p stays close to the
iid value. Note too that ATS margin is the raw margin plus a
near-zero average spread, so this is not independent confirmation
of the dominance result: it is largely the same data re-expressed.
── Round-by-round ATS ──
Round Opponent Spread Actual ATS Cover
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
R1 Hawks -4.0 +17.5 +13.5 4/6
R2 76ers -4.0 +22.2 +18.2 3/4
CF Cavaliers -2.8 +19.2 +16.5 4/4
Finals Spurs +2.5 +2.4 +4.9 3/5
East-rounds ATS (R1–CF): 11-3
Finals market view: Knicks were near even odds.
Actual avg margin: +2.4 (vs. spread of +2.5)
─── §13 ROBUSTNESS OF THE #1 RANKING ───────────────────────────────────
── Bootstrapped rank of opponent-adjusted margin ──
Resamples the 19 playoff games with replacement (20,000 times) and
re-ranks the opponent-adjusted margin against the other 42 champions.
Games within a series are correlated, so the true spread is a little
wider than an iid game bootstrap shows.
Point estimate (adj margin): +11.23 pts/game
90% interval on adj margin: [+5.08, +17.71]
P(rank #1 all-time): 59.6%
P(top 3): 69.9%
P(top 5): 82.4%
Median rank: 1 (90% interval: 1–11)
── Empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the adjusted margin ──
A 19-game margin singled out for being extreme overstates true strength.
Pulling it toward how dominant championship runs typically are (the other
42 champions, mean adj margin shown below) gives a regularized estimate.
Raw adjusted margin (data): +11.23 pts/game
Champion prior mean: +3.18 pts/game
Weight on the 19-game data: 41%
Shrunken (posterior) margin: +6.50 pts/game
95% credible interval: [+1.53, +11.48]
Even shrunken, that margin still beats 83% of champions outright.
── Adding opponent-strength uncertainty ──
The opponent adjustment treats each opponent's SRS as exact, but it
is estimated from ~82 games. Re-running the bootstrap while also
shocking each opponent's SRS by its standard error each time:
90% interval on adj margin: [+4.94, +17.88]
P(rank #1 all-time): 59.4% (games-only was 59.6%)
P(top 5): 81.7%
Opponent-strength noise barely moves the picture: game-to-game
variance dominates the uncertainty in this ranking.
─── §14 HIERARCHICAL (PARTIAL-POOLING) RANK ────────────────────────────
Random-effects model over all champions' opponent-adjusted margins:
y_c | theta_c ~ Normal(theta_c, v_c) (observed mean, sampling var)
theta_c ~ Normal(mu, tau^2) (population of true dominance)
tau^2 by DerSimonian-Laird; every champion shrunk toward mu by its own
reliability, then all champions simulated jointly and ranked.
Population mean (mu): +3.07 pts/game
Between-champion SD (tau): 1.97 pts/game
Knicks raw adj margin: +11.23
Knicks posterior (shrunk) mean: +4.70 pts/game
90% credible interval: [+1.80, +7.60]
P(Knicks are the true #1): 9.0%
P(top 3): 22.8%
P(top 5): 33.7%
Median posterior rank: 9 (90% interval: 1–32)
── Top champions by posterior (shrunk) adjusted margin ──
Season Raw adj Posterior ±90% CI
90–91 +9.20 +5.28 [+2.7, +7.9]
22–23 +7.68 +5.16 [+2.8, +7.6]
16–17 +10.23 +5.13 [+2.4, +7.9]
25–26 +11.23 +4.70 [+1.8, +7.6] ← Knicks
00–01 +7.26 +4.68 [+2.1, +7.2]
85–86 +7.72 +4.43 [+1.7, +7.2]
─── §15 ELO OPPONENT-RATING CROSS-CHECK ────────────────────────────────
SRS rates teams from season-aggregate margins. Elo is a sequential,
recency-weighted alternative (FiveThirtyEight NBA formula, K=20, 100-pt
home edge, MOV multiplier), converted to points above average (~28 Elo =
1 pt). If the Knicks' ranking holds under Elo, it isn't an SRS artifact.
Knicks games-wtd opp rating (Elo): +5.53 pts/game
Knicks Elo-adjusted margin: +9.36 pts/game
Rank among champions: #3 of 43 (95.3th pct)
For comparison, SRS-adjusted rank: #1 of 43
Correlation with SRS-adjusted margin (all champions): +0.958
Top 5 by Elo-adjusted margin:
16–17 raw +13.65 opp +3.19 adj +10.46
90–91 raw +11.71 opp +1.51 adj +10.20
25–26 raw +14.89 opp +5.53 adj +9.36 ← Knicks
86–87 raw +10.83 opp +1.65 adj +9.18
00–01 raw +12.75 opp +4.00 adj +8.75
── 2025-26 Knicks opponents: SRS vs Elo (points) ──
Opponent SRS Elo-pts
San Antonio Spurs +8.28 +10.71
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.77 +4.67
Atlanta Hawks +2.38 +4.25
Philadelphia 76ers -0.27 +1.84
─── §16 WINS-ONLY (BRADLEY–TERRY) CROSS-CHECK ──────────────────────────
SRS and Elo are both built from point margins. Bradley–Terry is fit from
win/loss ONLY (P(i beats j) = pi_i/(pi_i+pi_j)), so it shares no margin
information with the raw dominance number. Ratings are log-odds converted
to points by the Elo convention (~6.2 pts/log-odds); only the units borrow
that constant, the ordering is 100% wins-based. This is the strongest test
that the result isn't a margin-inflation artifact.
Knicks games-wtd opp rating (Bradley–Terry): +3.52 pts/game
Knicks Bradley–Terry-adjusted margin: +11.37 pts/game
Rank among champions: #1 of 43 (100.0th pct)
For comparison, SRS-adjusted rank: #1 of 43
Correlation with SRS-adjusted margin (all champions): +0.990
Top 5 by Bradley–Terry-adjusted margin:
25–26 raw +14.89 opp +3.52 adj +11.37 ← Knicks
16–17 raw +13.65 opp +3.22 adj +10.43
90–91 raw +11.71 opp +2.39 adj +9.31
86–87 raw +10.83 opp +1.59 adj +9.24
85–86 raw +10.56 opp +2.31 adj +8.24
─── §17 POSSESSIONS-BASED PACE ADJUSTMENT ──────────────────────────────
Estimated possessions (FGA − OREB + TOV + 0.44·FTA):
2025-26 poss/team/game: 101.8
Historical mean (1984–2026): 98.0
2025-26 pace is above average by 3.8 poss/game.
Knicks raw margin: +14.89 pts/game
Per-100-possessions: +14.63 → #1 of 43 (100.0th pct)
Knicks opponent-adjusted margin:+11.23 pts/game
Per-100-possessions: +11.02 → #1 of 43 (100.0th pct)
For contrast, the §9 scoring-share adjustment put the raw margin at #3.
Possessions isolate pace from the 3-point scoring boom, so 2025-26 is
penalized less than the scoring-share number implied.
Top 5 by opponent-adjusted margin per 100 possessions:
25–26 raw +14.89 pace 101.8 adj/100 +11.02 ← Knicks
16–17 raw +13.65 pace 98.8 adj/100 +10.36
86–87 raw +10.83 pace 104.2 adj/100 +9.13
90–91 raw +11.71 pace 101.1 adj/100 +9.10
00–01 raw +12.75 pace 93.9 adj/100 +7.73
─── §18 SERIES-LEVEL WIN-PROBABILITY MODEL ─────────────────────────────
Forward model from regular-season strength only (it does NOT know the
Knicks would elevate in May). Per game: win prob = Phi((SRS_NYK − SRS_opp
± home edge)/sigma), sigma=12 pts, home edge=3 pts, best-of-7 per round.
Knicks regular-season SRS: +6.05
Round Opponent Opp SRS NYK home? P(win series)
R1 Hawks +2.38 yes 77.2%
R2 76ers -0.27 yes 88.9%
CF Cavaliers +3.77 yes 68.7%
Finals Spurs +8.28 no 31.4%
P(Knicks win the title): 14.7%
Expected losses in a title run: 6.5 (actual: 3)
P(a title run loses ≤3 games): 6.7% (this is how clean 16-3 is)
P(title AND ≤3 losses), unconditional: 1.0%
The model made the Knicks a Finals underdog (the Spurs out-rated them in
the regular season), so a 16-3 title was well above the forward forecast:
they beat the bracket their own regular season predicted, echoing the
margin-based overperformance in §5.
Field note: this is not a full-field title sim; it follows only the
Knicks' actual bracket. By regular-season SRS the strongest team in the
field was Oklahoma City Thunder (+11.04), ahead of the Spurs (+8.28).
The model never scores Thunder because they exited before the
Finals; the Spurs are the only rival it rates, since New York played them.
─── §19 FULL-FIELD TITLE ODDS (FORWARD BRACKET SIM) ────────────────────
Seeds all 16 playoff teams into the fixed bracket (1v8, 4v5, 3v6, 2v7;
better seed hosts in-conference, better SRS hosts the Finals) and plays
every best-of-7 forward from regular-season SRS, same per-game model as
§18. Unlike §18 it does not follow the Knicks' realized path, so it scores
the whole field. Reg-season SRS only; it does not know any team would
elevate in May.
# Team Conf Seed Reg SRS Title%
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
1 Oklahoma City Thunder West 1 +11.04 54.5%
2 San Antonio Spurs West 2 +8.28 14.2%
3 Detroit Pistons East 1 +7.53 13.5%
4 Boston Celtics East 2 +7.37 10.8%
5 New York Knicks East 3 +6.05 3.5% ← Knicks
6 Denver Nuggets West 3 +4.97 1.2%
7 Houston Rockets West 5 +4.87 1.0%
8 Cleveland Cavaliers East 4 +3.77 0.7%
9 Toronto Raptors East 5 +2.75 0.2%
10 Minnesota Timberwolves West 6 +3.07 0.2%
11 Atlanta Hawks East 6 +2.38 0.1%
12 Los Angeles Lakers West 4 +1.68 0.0%
13 Phoenix Suns West 7 +1.75 0.0%
14 Orlando Magic East 8 +0.81 0.0%
15 Philadelphia 76ers East 7 -0.27 0.0%
16 Portland Trail Blazers West 8 -0.28 0.0%
Favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder at 54.5%, more than triple any rival.
The Knicks were the East 3-seed and only 3.5% to win it all here,
far below the 14.7% the §18 realized-path model gave them.
The gap is the bracket draw: §18 conditions on the opponents New York
actually drew (the East's top seeds were upset before they met), while
this sim makes them run the seed-expected gauntlet through Detroit and
Boston. Neither model knows they would elevate.
─── §20 APPENDIX: FULL OPP+SCORING-ADJUSTED CHAMPION RANKING ───────────
Opponent-and-scoring-adjusted playoff margin (pts/game) for all
43 champions, most dominant first. Raw = scoring margin; OppAdj =
after strength-of-schedule; Opp+Scoring = also scaled to a common scoring
environment so eras compare on one ruler. Z = the same opponent-adjusted
margin graded against that season's spread of team strength (§22), with
Z# its rank on that order.
# Season Champion Raw OppAdj Opp+Scoring Z Z#
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
1 25–26 New York Knicks +14.89 +11.23 +10.05 +1.90 5 ← Knicks
2 16–17 Golden State Warriors +13.65 +10.23 +10.04 +2.48 1
3 86–87 Los Angeles Lakers +10.83 +9.52 +8.96 +2.12 2
4 90–91 Chicago Bulls +11.71 +9.20 +8.96 +1.90 6
5 00–01 Los Angeles Lakers +12.75 +7.26 +7.93 +1.67 8
6 85–86 Boston Celtics +10.56 +7.72 +7.25 +1.96 4
7 22–23 Denver Nuggets +8.30 +7.68 +6.93 +2.03 3
8 84–85 Los Angeles Lakers +10.16 +7.21 +6.74 +1.88 7
9 95–96 Chicago Bulls +10.56 +6.03 +6.27 +1.21 10
10 17–18 Golden State Warriors +10.00 +6.04 +5.88 +1.43 9
11 98–99 San Antonio Spurs +7.24 +4.90 +5.54 +1.15 11
12 23–24 Boston Celtics +8.05 +6.06 +5.49 +1.15 12
13 13–14 San Antonio Spurs +9.30 +4.82 +4.94 +1.03 13
14 14–15 Golden State Warriors +7.81 +4.48 +4.64 +0.95 15
15 19–20 Los Angeles Lakers +6.86 +4.80 +4.44 +1.01 14
16 24–25 Oklahoma City Thunder +8.35 +4.68 +4.25 +0.82 19
17 89–90 Detroit Pistons +7.00 +4.25 +4.12 +0.92 16
18 11–12 Miami Heat +7.09 +3.81 +4.10 +0.82 20
19 88–89 Detroit Pistons +7.71 +4.26 +4.04 +0.81 21
20 12–13 Miami Heat +6.43 +3.71 +3.92 +0.84 18
21 03–04 Detroit Pistons +6.35 +3.44 +3.82 +0.87 17
22 08–09 Los Angeles Lakers +7.22 +3.35 +3.47 +0.74 22
23 15–16 Cleveland Cavaliers +8.62 +3.21 +3.24 +0.66 23
24 07–08 Boston Celtics +5.23 +2.75 +2.85 +0.53 24
25 97–98 Chicago Bulls +7.00 +2.42 +2.62 +0.46 26
26 91–92 Chicago Bulls +6.18 +2.20 +2.17 +0.47 25
27 20–21 Milwaukee Bucks +5.13 +1.80 +1.66 +0.39 28
28 02–03 San Antonio Spurs +5.50 +1.35 +1.47 +0.33 29
29 83–84 Boston Celtics +4.17 +1.42 +1.34 +0.46 27
30 10–11 Dallas Mavericks +5.76 +1.26 +1.31 +0.28 30
31 18–19 Toronto Raptors +5.46 +1.15 +1.07 +0.25 31
32 92–93 Chicago Bulls +5.84 +0.79 +0.77 +0.17 32
33 04–05 San Antonio Spurs +4.35 +0.65 +0.69 +0.16 33
34 21–22 Golden State Warriors +5.05 +0.46 +0.43 +0.10 34
35 05–06 Miami Heat +3.78 +0.22 +0.24 +0.06 35
36 96–97 Chicago Bulls +5.74 +0.04 +0.04 +0.01 36
37 06–07 San Antonio Spurs +3.90 -0.13 -0.14 -0.04 37
38 09–10 Los Angeles Lakers +3.83 -0.27 -0.28 -0.06 38
39 87–88 Los Angeles Lakers +2.54 -0.33 -0.32 -0.07 39
40 93–94 Houston Rockets +3.13 -1.61 -1.64 -0.32 40
41 01–02 Los Angeles Lakers +3.79 -1.94 -2.10 -0.48 41
42 99–00 Los Angeles Lakers +2.39 -2.42 -2.58 -0.54 42
43 94–95 Houston Rockets +2.77 -2.99 -3.06 -0.64 43
── Shape of the champion-dominance distribution ──
Mean: +3.29 pts/game
Standard deviation: 3.38
Knicks (top score): +10.05 (+2.0 SD above the mean)
Within 1 SD of mean: 28 of 43 (65%)
Skew: +0.18 (0 = symmetric)
Excess kurtosis: -0.65 (0 = normal; <0 = thinner tails)
Shapiro-Wilk: W=0.979, p=0.623 (p>0.05: consistent with normal)
The scores form a bell-shaped spread, not a heavy-tailed power law: near-
symmetric, tails no fatter than a normal curve, and a normality test it
passes comfortably. The Knicks are the top order statistic of an ordinary
bell curve, about 2 SD out, right where the best of 43 draws is expected.
─── §21 CAPPED-MARGIN (ROBUST) SRS CROSS-CHECK ─────────────────────────
SRS treats a 40-point win like a 4-point one, so a few garbage-time
blowouts can swing a team's season rating. This caps every game's margin
at ±15 before solving the same SRS system, bounding any one result's
leverage while keeping the schedule adjustment. It sits between SRS (full
margin) and Bradley–Terry (no margin): a third opponent-rating axis that
asks whether the Knicks' schedule-strength estimate survives when no
single rout can distort it.
Knicks games-wtd opp rating (capped-SRS): +2.96 pts/game
Knicks capped-SRS-adjusted margin: +11.93 pts/game
Rank among champions: #1 of 43 (100.0th pct)
For comparison, SRS-adjusted rank: #1 of 43
Correlation with SRS-adjusted margin (all champions): +0.996
Top 5 by capped-SRS-adjusted margin:
25–26 raw +14.89 opp +2.96 adj +11.93 ← Knicks
16–17 raw +13.65 opp +2.71 adj +10.94
90–91 raw +11.71 opp +1.98 adj +9.72
86–87 raw +10.83 opp +1.25 adj +9.58
85–86 raw +10.56 opp +1.97 adj +8.58
─── §22 SPREAD-STANDARDIZED DOMINANCE (Z-SCORE) ────────────────────────
adj_margin already removes schedule (§5) and §9/§17 the scoring level.
But the spread of team strengths has widened: SRS standard deviation rose
from ~3.1 (1984) to ~5.9 (2025-26), so the same +10 margin is a smaller
share of a modern, top-heavy league. z = adj_margin / (season SRS SD)
expresses dominance in standard deviations above an average team, the
dispersion analogue of the level adjustments.
Knicks adjusted margin: +11.23 pts/game (rank #1 on raw points)
2025-26 SRS spread (SD): 5.90 (widest in the dataset)
Knicks z-score: +1.90 SD above an average team
Rank among champions by z: #5 of 43
Top 8 by spread-standardized dominance:
16–17 adj +10.23 SRS SD 4.12 z +2.48
86–87 adj +9.52 SRS SD 4.49 z +2.12
22–23 adj +7.68 SRS SD 3.79 z +2.03
85–86 adj +7.72 SRS SD 3.95 z +1.96
25–26 adj +11.23 SRS SD 5.90 z +1.90 ← Knicks
90–91 adj +9.20 SRS SD 4.83 z +1.90
84–85 adj +7.21 SRS SD 3.84 z +1.88
00–01 adj +7.26 SRS SD 4.35 z +1.67
Spread-standardized leader: 16–17 (z +2.48).
Standardizing by era dispersion is the one adjustment that unseats the
Knicks from #1; §9, §17, and the wins-only and capped ratings do not.